A fresh intelligence report found that Bitcoin adoption could occur more rapidly than other disruptive technologies such as cars and electric power, with global uptake projected to hit 10% by 2030, per the report.
In its June 8 report, Blockware Intelligence said its forecast is based on the historical adoption curves for the nine previous disruptive technologies, including automobiles electric power, smartphones, the internet, and social media, along with the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption since 2009.
“All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve pattern, but […] newer network-based technologies continue to be adopted much faster than the market expects.”
Researchers arrived at the prediction using an average and weighted average of tech. adoption curves, as well as the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption.
The result was based on the metric called Cumulative Sum of Net Entities Growth and Bitcoin’s predicted “CAGR of 60% we forecast that global Bitcoin adoption will break past 10% in the year 2030”.
Admittedly, the firm is the research arm of Blockware Solutions – a Bitcoin mining and infrastructure company – so it’s no surprise that researchers are optimistic about accelerating Bitcoin adoption.
The intelligence firm said it anticipates adoption to reach saturation at a faster rate than other disruptive technologies given the monetary incentives, game theory, macro-economic environment, and due to the accelerative forces of the Internet.
“From a consumer perspective, past technologies had convenience/efficiency-related incentives to adopt them: adopting automobiles allowed you to zoom past the horse and buggy, adopting the cell phone allowed you to make calls without being tied to a landline,” researchers explained.
“With Bitcoin direct financially incentivized adoption creates a game theory in which everyone’s best response is to adopt Bitcoin.”
Like the internet, smartphones and social media, Bitcoin also benefits from more people joining the network, also known as the “network effect”. Cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin have also benefitted from Bitcoin adoption, though the network effect is smaller than Bitcoin, making it more challenging for the cryptocurrency to reach mass adoption as quickly as Bitcoin.
“Case in point if you were the only user on Twitter would it be of any value? It would not. More users make these technologies more valuable”, they added.
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Still, the researchers emphasised that the model was only at a conceptual stage, adding that it shouldn’t be used as neither investment advice nor a short-term trading strategy.
However, “the general trend is clear; there is a high probability that Bitcoin’s global adoption will grow significantly into the future and thus so will price.”
The report and model was reviewed by several crypto investors and analysts, including executives from Ark Invest, Arcane Assets, AMDAX Asset Management, and M31 Capital.
Researcher findings Bolstered by other Data Points
Crypto adoption has been increasing rapidly over the years, though regulatory clarity has been a limiting factor for mega institutions to join in. In its 2021 “year in review” report, Fidelity Digital Assets (FDAS) found that “71% of U.S. and European institutional investors surveyed intend to allocate to digital assets in the future.” FDAS suspects that clarity in regulation and increased accessibility will be key factors in continuing institutionalization through 2022.
But with the promising regulatory proposals making it to the US senate, and the imminent inclusion of Bitcoin in Fidelity 401k accounts, the question of further institutional money pouring into the sector is a matter of “when”, not “if”.
In April 2022, a survey by Insider Intelligence found that another 33.7 million people are expected to adopt cryptocurrencies by the end of 2022.
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