Bitcoin has entered an area where value buyers are stepping in. The founder and former CEO of Bitmex, Arthur Hayes, is one such person who has called for a $1 million Bitcoin by 2030 despite recent troubles stemming for macro-economic global conditions.

In Brief

  • Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030.
  • The former BitMEX CEO says the EU’s collapse is inevitable.
  • Nation-state adoption of Bitcoin will drive the price higher.
  • Negative Bitcoin sentiment still dominates.

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Nation-state adoption of Bitcoin is inevitable according to Hayes

Explaining his thoughts in a Medium blog post, Hayes underlined that global economic trends and geopolitical factors will drive Bitcoin to this mammoth price. Hayes didn’t mince his words in painting a gloomy picture where government policies are driving economically unfeasible trends.

Government policies since the lockdown policies in 2020 have “entrenched” inflation. But things could get far worse according t oHayes. In what he calls “the doom loop”, Arthur Hayes predicts Western economies, in particular the European Union will collapse.

The bloc has become unsustainable for a number of reasons, including its sanctioning of Russian fossil fuels which would negatively impact Germany’s competitiveness  in manufacturing. The decision to pursue green policies at the expense of income-generating industries will lead to their implosion, says Hayes. But this will be good for Bitcoin as it emphasises the need for countries to prioritise their own interests.

“Unfortunately (but thankfully, if you are one of Satoshi’s disciples), the West’s decision to financially cancel the largest global energy and commodity producer is the biggest advertisement for the existential need of Bitcoin in a sovereign’s currency savings portfolio,” he said.

As nation-states witness this advantage, Bitcoin will be able to “infect” their portfolios. He goes on to say that adoption of Bitcoin will also mean more favourable policies for the asset at a country-level.

Bitcoin-backed politicians would also be part of the solution to concerns that Bitcoin might become obsolete. Nation-states adopting Bitcoin will offset stagnation the network might undergo due to the absolute conviction of holders not to sell.

Hayes’ also noted that gold’s outlook is good too. He expects China’s issue of capital surplus to propel the “doom loop”, whereby fiat money is debased because there is no other option but to retreat to neutral money like gold and bitcoin. He expects gold to hit $20,000 once inflation hits a point where the Federal Reserve has to implement Yield Curve Control (YCC) – where the Fed shifts from fighting inflation to more accommodative policy.

Hayes holds a bearish short term outlook on Bitcoin, spurred by the Fed’s tightening monetary policy stance. In a previous blog post, Hayes said that Bitcoin might tank to about $30,000 by June. The crypto exchanged hands $37,400 over the weekend, but has since recovered to $39,000 amidst negative sentiment dominating risk-asset markets.

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