On-chain data shows increased bitcoin holding among bitcoin retail investors who expect bitcoin to rally early next year.
In Brief
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Bitcoin holding activity has increased relative to the last bull cycle
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Typically, bitcoin rallies about 12-15 months after the halving
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The US presidential election is bullish for bitcoin irrespective of the winner
Compared to the last cycle, bitcoin is showing higher levels of ‘HODLing’ activity this time around.
Per an analysis from on-chain analyst Willy Woo, an indicator called “reflexivity” has been increasing in recent months. The indicator measures bitcoin investors’ tendency to hold bitcoin as the price rises, which is essentially another way to gauge the famous ‘hodl-wave’ by retail investors.
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Will the next bull run eclipse the last cycle?
Notably, there are various reasons why retail investors might be holding onto bitcoin even more so than in prior cycles.
Should bitcoin rally sometime next year, many retail investors would probably see this as a post-halving bull rally. Historically, bitcoin has rallied 12 to 15 months after each halving, recording a fresh high every time. In the last cycle, it took 8 months for this to happen.
Based on this post-halving rally, retail investors might now be holding in anticipation in order to avoid being priced-out if a strong sustained rally takes root.
Such rationale is not at all unfounded given bitcoin’s incredible resilience – most clearly demonstrated on March 12th when the crypto could have gone all the way to zero. Instead, bitcoin recovered from the fear-induced crash and reclaimed $10,000 despite all the odds weighing in against it.
More recently, bitcoin’s slump after the US Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged Bitmex with failing to maintain AML processes was quite modest. Indeed, bitcoin fell below $10,500 but quickly recovered to $10,700. According to Woo’s analysis, this is possibly due to the confluence of the two key factors. He explained:
“This [reflexivity] is the tendency of HODLers to hold onto their coins harder as price increases. I had expected reflexivity to increase during the mania phase of BULL markets, but it looks quite constant from the last two cycles… This cycle is interesting; reflexivity is increasing rather than static compared to last cycles. While we now need more capital invested to get similar % gains in price, the effect of HODLers holding onto coins tighter is magnifying ‘number go up’ per dollar invested.”
As we head deeper into the fourth quarter, industry executives believe the US presidential election could benefit bitcoin and the positive hodling data could further buoy bitcoin’s price. For this to happen, however, bitcoin must decouple from the S&P500 per Monday’s newsletter.
The US presidential election could stir further momentum
In truth, US elections will result in similar policies irrespective of whichever candidate wins. Naturally, certain markets stand to gain more or less relative to others depending on the winner, but with respect to bitcoin’s macro fundamentals, either candidate will do more of the same.
More specifically, it’s unlikely for there to be any major change in monetary and fiscal policy while the United States is in crisis mode. If anything, increased short-term volatility should be expected if there is a change in the status quo and a reshuffling of the current administration.
That being said, money printing will continue unabated, and this might eventually spark the decoupling event crypto enthusiasts have been waiting for.
